REQUEST FOR DECISION
DATE: June 16, 2020 Report No. DEV-20-038
TO: Laurie Hurst, Chief Administrative Officer
FROM: Bill Brown, Director of Development Services
SUBJECT:
Title
Request by the Capital Regional District to have Council reconsider their motion to reject the proposed Regional Growth Strategy amendment related to population projections.
End
RECOMMENDATION:
Recommendation
That Council consider approving Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Amendment Bylaw 4328 for Municipal Acceptance related to population projections subject to the following conditions:
1) That the Capital Regional Board first approve an amendment to Section 3.9 (Regional Context Statement - Population Projections) of the Township of Esquimalt’s Official Community Plan;
2) That the Capital Regional District commit in writing to paying the legal fees incurred by the Township of Esquimalt to have the proposed amendment to the Regional Context Statement drafted by its legal counsel; and
3) That the Capital Regional District send a letter to all member municipalities stating that the Capital Regional District only recognizes the population projections at the sub-regional level as per the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy and does not recognize the population projections for individual municipalities.
Body
RELEVANT POLICY:
Bylaw No. 4017 - Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy, Bylaw No. 1, 2016
Bylaw No. 4328 - Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw No. 1, 2016, Amendment Bylaw No. 1, 2019
Official Community Plan Bylaw, 2018, No. 2922
Township of Esquimalt Strategic Priorities 2019-2023
STRATEGIC RELEVANCE:
Although the population, dwelling unit, and employment projections are not related to any specific strategic priority, goal, or operational strategy; an accurate understanding of demographic trends in Esquimalt informs the Township’s response to many of the items in the Strategic Plan.
BACKGROUND:
On April 6th, 2020, Council voted to send a letter to Mr. Colin Plant, the Chair of the Board of the Capital Regional District stating:
“That Council reject the proposed Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw amendment and that the letter from Colin Plant, Chair, Capital Regional District Board, dated March 13, 2020, Re: Bylaw 4328 - RGS Amendment Referral for Municipal Acceptance be received.”
Council’s rejection of the amendment was based on concerns regarding the methodology used to derive the population projection and discrepancies with the projected growth data for Esquimalt. The letter concluded by requesting that the Capital Regional District inform the Township of the next steps.
On May 20, 2020, at the request of the Capital Regional District, a conference call was convened with the following participants: Colin Plant, Chair, Capital Regional District Board, Barbara Desjardins, Mayor of the Township of Esquimalt, Laurie Hurst, Chief Administrative Officer, Township of Esquimalt,; Robert Lapham, Chief Administrative Officer, Capital Regional District, and several support staff from both the Township and the Capital Regional District. There was a wide ranging discussion about the Township’s concerns with the methodology used to generate the population projection - particularly given the current level of growth in Esquimalt compared to other municipalities. The Chair of the Capital Regional District acknowledged Esquimalt’s concerns and appeared to genuinely seek a resolution that would be acceptable to the Township. There was also a discussion about whether or not Council would reconsider its position since, by rejecting the amendment; it would trigger one of three options in the Local Government Act for settling disagreements. These are: peer panels, final proposal arbitration, and full arbitration. As a result of the conversation, it was decided that Esquimalt’s Director of Development Services would present a staff report to Council that would allow Council to consider whether or not they might reconsider their motion to reject the amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy. This staff report presents that opportunity to Council.
The original concerns that staff and Council have are well documented in earlier staff reports (q.v. DEV-19-050, DEV-19-069, and DEV-19-113). The over riding issue is that the methodology does not reflect the current scale and pace of development in Esquimalt, and hence the results of the analysis have no practical value to staff or Council in terms of helping to inform planning or decision making processes. It is understood that although Esquimalt Council was the only Council to reject the amendment, other Council’s have similar concerns. It should be noted that while an arbitration process might result in a favorable outcome for Esquimalt, there is little that can be done at this time to rectify the situation. It should also be noted, that the Capital Regional District only has a statutory obligation to do a population projection at a regional scale. Although there is no question that the original intent of this most recent population projection was to provide individual population projections for each municipality, and indeed these were actually produced; it soon became apparent that some of the projections were not accurate at the individual municipal scale and hence the data has been amalgamated to a sub-regional scale for the purposes of the amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy.
As mentioned above, the population projection data was originally presented for each municipality. Although the Capital Regional District chose to amalgamate the data into sub-regions for the purposes of the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy, the original data based on population projections for individual municipalities has been incorporated into the introduction section of Victoria 3.0 Recovery Reinvention Resilience - 2020 - 2041. The data in this document, which is an “economic action plan” for the City of Victoria, shows that Esquimalt will lose almost 2000 jobs in the next 20 years even though the Township is home to two of the largest employers in the region. It also indicates that over the next 20 years, 1,600 new dwellings will be built in Esquimalt. There are currently almost 450 dwelling dwellings under construction in Esquimalt - that is over 25 percent of the projected number for the next 20 years. The data from the Capital Regional District’s population projections must be used with care when it is used to inform important policy documents such as economic action plans. It is for this reason that staff are recommending that the Capital Regional District send a letter to each member municipality, cautioning them about using the population projections for individual municipalities for policy, planning, or decision making purposes.
In summary, the Capital Regional District has fulfilled its statutory obligation to prepare a regional population projection. The methodology used may be appropriate at a regional scale; however, its use is questionable at the scale of a municipality such as Esquimalt. It has very limited utility in informing Esquimalt’s policy, planning and decision making processes. Council has chosen to reject the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy on this basis. While Esquimalt would seem to have a strong case, there is little that an arbitrator can do to rectify the situation. Perhaps the best outcome would be for Council to reconsider its rejection of the amendment, and instead, seek some assurances from the Capital Regional District that in the future, there will be a broader consultation with it members related to the proposed methodology and greater care will be taken in selecting a methodology that adequately responds to the situations in individual municipalities, bearing in mind the aphorism attributed to well known statistician George Box, “All models are wrong but some are useful”.
ISSUES:
1. Rationale for Selected Option
Following a conference call between the Mayor of Esquimalt, the Chair of the Capital Regional District, the Chief Administrative Officers for both the Township and the District, as well as support staff; it was decided that the Township’s Director of Development Services would prepare a staff report that would give Council an opportunity to reconsider their motion to not support the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy.
2. Organizational Implications
An arbitration process would involve a significant amount of staff time in terms of preparation and participation in the process. On the other hand, staff have previous experience in the arbitration process.
3. Financial Implications
The Township would be responsible for 50 percent of the costs of arbitration.
4. Sustainability & Environmental Implications
There are no significant sustainability or environmental implications.
5. Communication & Engagement
The Capital Regional District is responsible for all communications and engagement related to the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy.
ALTERNATIVES:
1. That Council consider approving Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy Amendment Bylaw 4328 for Municipal Acceptance, related to population projections subject to the following conditions:
1) That the Capital Regional Board first approve an amendment to Section 3.9 (Regional Context Statement - Population Projections) of the Township of Esquimalt’s Official Community Plan;
2) That the Capital Regional District commit in writing to paying the legal fees incurred by the Township of Esquimalt to have the proposed amendment to the Regional Context Statement drafted by its legal counsel; and,
3) That the Capital Regional District send a letter to all member municipalities stating that the Capital Regional District only recognizes the population projections at the sub-regional level as per the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy and does not recognize the population projections for individual municipalities.
2. That Council informs the Capital Regional District that it stands by its rejection of the proposed amendment to the Regional Growth Strategy and is prepared to proceed to arbitration.